Last Updated on June 4, 2025
The UK and France are grappling with a significant surge in small boat crossings across the English Channel, prompting renewed debate over contributing factors and cross-border cooperation. While the UK government attributes a recent spike to favorable weather conditions, data analysis reveals a more complex picture, with crossings also increasing during poor weather.
Record Crossings Spark Debate
A record 11,074 individuals arrived in the UK via small boats by May this year, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to the same period last year. The Home Office initially linked this surge to a doubling of "red days" (days with good weather conducive to crossings) from January to April 2025. However, independent analysis indicates a substantial rise in crossings even on days with less ideal weather, with a 30% increase from last year and more than double the number from 2023.
- The Home Office reported 60 "red days" by April 2025, compared to 27 in the same period last year.
- An average of 190 people arrived daily on fair weather days, versus 60 on days with less consistent good conditions.
- Crossings on "low viability" days (poor weather) have more than doubled since 2023.
Shifting Smuggler Tactics and Geopolitical Factors
The increase in crossings during adverse weather conditions suggests evolving tactics by smuggling gangs. Boats are becoming severely overcrowded, with 47% of vessels carrying 60 or more people in the year to April 2025, a significant jump from just 2% in 2022. Dr. Peter Walsh of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University suggests that geopolitical issues, such as the situation in Afghanistan, may be contributing to increased demand, even as illegal entries into the EU have decreased.
UK Pressures France on Policing
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has been actively pressing France to amend its policing policies regarding small boat crossings. A loophole in French law currently prevents authorities from intercepting migrants once they are in the water, leading to situations where individuals wait in the surf for boats to arrive. Despite a £480 million deal with the UK to curb crossings, France is reportedly intercepting fewer migrants than before.
- The French Interior Minister has indicated a review of policies to allow intervention in shallow waters.
- The UK is urging France to swiftly implement these changes.
- Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp criticized France's low prevention rate on land and suggested suspending EU fishing access to UK waters until France takes stronger action at sea.
Defining Weather Conditions
The Home Office relies on Met Office assessments for predicting crossing likelihood, using a Red, Amber, Green (RAG) system based on factors like wave height, wind speed, rain, and atmospheric pressure. "High viability" days are characterized by favorable conditions (low wave height, gentle breeze, minimal rain, high atmospheric pressure) for at least four consecutive hours between 2 am and 6 am UK time in the Dover Strait. "Low viability" days have no more than one hour of such conditions.
Sources
- Government draws link between good weather and small boat crossings - but they are rising during bad
conditions too | Politics News, Sky News. - France reviewing small boat policing tactics, Yvette Cooper says, BBC.
- UK Blames Record Small Boat Migrant Crossings on Good Weather, Bloomberg.
- UK pressures France to crack down on small boat crossings, Euronews.
